Wildfire Hazard level: Low ?

In the area you have selected (Oslo) the wildfire hazard is classified as low according to the information that is currently available to this tool. This means that there is between a 4% and 10% chance of experiencing weather that could support a problematic wildfire in your project area that may cause disruptions and low but tangible risk of life and property loss in any given year. Based on this information, the impact of wildfire should be considered in the project, in particular during design and construction phases. Project planning decisions, project design, and construction methods should take into account the possibility of wildfire. Note that impacts on people and property can not only occur due to direct flame and radiation exposure but also due to embers and low-level surface fire. Further detailed information specific to the location and planned project should be obtained to adequately understand the level of hazard.

Climate change impacts: Modeled projections of future climate identify a likely increase in the frequency of fire weather occurrence in this region, including an increase in temperature and greater variance in rainfall. In areas already affected by wildfire hazard, the fire season is likely to increase in duration, and include a greater number of days with weather that could support fire spread because of longer periods without rain during fire seasons. Climate projections indicate that there could also be an increase in the severity of fire. It would be prudent to design projects in this area to be robust to increases in the severity and frequency of wildfire hazard. Areas of very low or low wildfire hazard could see an increase in hazard, as climate projections indicate an expansion of the wildfire hazard zone. Consider local studies on the impacts of climate change on wildfire trends, before deciding whether to design projects to withstand fire of greater intensity than those previously experienced in this region.

Recommendations

• REGULATIONS: Check with local authorities for any local regulations concerning wildfire hazard. Ensure that the project conforms to 1) any applicable wildfire land use planning regulations; 2) any applicable building regulations 3) any existing plans for warning and evacuation; and 4) any national laws, regulations and rules. More information
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  • Ensure that your project conforms with all local and national laws, regulations, rules and guidance for land-use planning and building design codes related to wildfire hazard.

  • Ensure that your project conforms with all local and national laws, regulations, rules and guidance for health and safety concerning wildfire hazard.

  Examples of wildfire planning and legislation (taken from the United States and Australia) include: http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/plan-and-prepare/building-in-a-bush-fire-area/planning-for-bush-fire-protection/planning-for-bush-fire-protection-2017-public-exhibition

  http://www.firewise.org/wildfire-preparedness/regulations-and-plans.aspx?sso=0 http://learnline.cdu.edu.au/units/env207/policy/legislation.html

  https://www.sa.gov.au/topics/planning-and-property/land-and-property-development/building-rules-regulations-and-information/building-or-developing-in-bushfire-prone-areas

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• INSURANCE: For Wildfire risk that cannot be mitigated, consider insurance products that can be used to account for the loss probability and recovery rate of the asset in question. Indemnity against legal action in response to wildfires caused by the project during its development and operation should also be considered. More information
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  During the design phase consider a ‘builders risk’ insurance policy for your project, in particular, covering loss or damage from wildfire. Building assets under construction, i.e., that are not completed and sealed, may be particularly vulnerable to wildfire damage as ingress of firebrands is a greater possibility than when the construction is complete.

  Indemnity from legal action resulting from wildfires caused by activities during the construction phase should be considered.

  After construction is complete, consider a long-term hazard policy to protect the project investment and any ongoing risk of legal action resulting from ignition sources at the site.

  A choice not to obtain wildfire loss/damage insurance for regions with this category of risk should only be considered after obtaining a detailed understanding of the local wildfire history and risk potential. Seek advice from regional fire metrological agencies.

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• DO NOT INCREASE HAZARD: Human activities and the operation of certain machinery can increase the potential for wildfire ignition. Policies and procedures should consider the potential for wildfire ignition, particularly during the days where weather conditions are conducive to Wildfire spread. More information
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  In many regions, human activities cause the majority of wildfire ignitions. Common activities that cause accidental ignition and spread of wildfire include, welding, grinding, faulty machinery, discarded cigarettes, cooking, and campfires.

  Consider local wildfire weather warning systems and trigger levels and understand how these are used locally. Regional fire agencies can advise on the appropriate fire weather hazard level for which fire ignition sources and activities should be avoided or extensively managed. Alter activities in response to these warning systems, such as limiting sources of ignition and restricting certain access arrangements or activities. Restricting certain activities may be a local legal requirement that if not followed could result in legal liability.

  Projects related to forestry or agriculture should be subject to assessment of whether increasing the amount of fuel or introducing new fuels to an area could increase the risk of wildfire locally.

  Projects involving storage and use of combustible or hazardous materials should consider the implications of wildfire attack in the storage or process areas where these are present.

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• WILDFIRE RISK MITIGATION: Wildfire risk mitigation can be achieved through a combination of strategies which involve site location, site design, fuel management, building design and emergency response. More information
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  While wildfire hazard is determined to be low by the information used in this tool, it is prudent to be responsive to local advice provided by your regional fire agency and the potential that wildfire hazard may increase in the future, for example under a warming climate.

  Consider the appropriateness of the proposed project in relation to the site location and wildfire hazard. Limit the types and location of vegetation in your proposed project site. Consider the potential risk from vegetation beyond the project site boundary and the prospect of this vegetation growing and providing great risk in the future. Fuel reduction (by slashing, removal, or regular burning) is a key strategy for managing the wildfire hazard.

  Consider having access to a water supply that can continue to provide water in the event of a power failure or wildfire impacts on the water supply infrastructure itself. A continuous water supply can be used to extinguish small fires on the project resulting from a wildfire, in addition to any role in the continued operation of the project. Consider the implications of wildfires impacting your power supply networks and backup generation systems.

  Consider the choice of building material used for the framing and façade of the buildings and aiming for non-combustible material for both. Conventional construction techniques using either or a combination of steel and concrete are proven to be reliable in wildfire provided these structures are well sealed to prevent firebrand entry (construction gaps should be less than 2mm). Look for local examples of construction techniques that not only meet local building requirements but have been proven to resist wildfire attack.

  The following resources provide Wildfire risk mitigation strategies are described in greater detail at: http://disastersafety.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Best-Practices-Guide-Wildfire_IBHS.pdf http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/plan-and-prepare/building-in-a-bush-fire-area/planning-for-bush-fire-protection/planning-for-bush-fire-protection-2017-public-exhibition

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• LOCATION ASSESSMENT and PROFESSIONAL GUIDANCE: The high-level information available in this tool indicates the potential for weather that could support wildfire spread in your project area. Before committing significant resources to this project, a professional study of both the local fire weather potential, fire history and capacity of the surrounding landscape to support wildfire should be considered. More information
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  Consult your regional fire agency to determine whether there is sufficient reason to consider wildfire as a risk to your project.

  Local fire weather potential is determined by a combination of wind, temperature, humidity and recent rainfall history. These weather parameters are combined into a fire weather index such as http://www.fire.uni-freiburg.de/gwfews/ to provide daily forecasting for fire weather severity typically categorized into fire severity levels such as high, medium, low etc. These levels mean different things in different locations and vegetation types. Seek local advice from your regional firefighting agency as to how these fire weather severity levels relate to your local landscape.

  A higher fire weather index indicates: • dryer and more combustible fine grassy or woody fuels • stronger the wind will be to drive a wildfire through the landscape

  At a certain threshold of fire weather index, fires will be able to spread from an ignition source. Wildfires can spread through the landscape in a number of different ways: - It can spread through areas of grassy or woody fuels - It can produce firebrands which are carried by the wind with the potential to ignite a distant location.

  When grassy or woody surface fuels become difficult to see through or walk through they have already reached a level that could support an intense wildfire if the weather conditions are right. Your regional firefighting agency should be consulted for guidance on how to assess the fire potential of fuels local to and on your proposed project site.

  Your regional firefighting agency is likely to also be a useful resource for understanding the fire history of the region.

  At the scale of individual assets, a focus on building construction will also help in understanding failure thresholds including the potential for ignition by firebrands (embers). An appropriate location would ideally allow for sufficient clearance between infrastructure and fuel sources, particularly areas of unmanaged vegetation.

  Both ambient winds that drive a wildfire and additional wind effects cause by the wildfire itself can provide significant wind exposure. Consideration should be given building location (such as avoiding hilltops and ridgelines) and design with respect to wind damage and the potential for such damage that may open up the structure and allow firebrand entry.

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