Wildfire Hazard level: Very low ?

In the area you have selected (Bahrain) the wildfire hazard is classified as very low according to the information that is currently available to this tool. This means that there is less than a 4% chance of experiencing weather that could support a problematic wildfire in your project area with only a minor chance of causing disruption in any given year. Although the hazard level is considered to be very low in the location based on available historical weather information, locally specific conditions such as the occurrence of dry fuels and steep slopes may require that wildfire be considered possible. If local or additional information sources suggest that wildfire should be considered, follow the recommendations below and seek expert guidance on additional recommended actions.

Climate change impacts: Modeled projections of future climate identify a likely increase in the frequency of fire weather occurrence in this region, including an increase in temperature and greater variance in rainfall. In areas already affected by wildfire hazard, the fire season is likely to increase in duration, and include a greater number of days with weather that could support fire spread because of longer periods without rain during fire seasons. Climate projections indicate that there could also be an increase in the severity of fire. It would be prudent to design projects in this area to be robust to increases in the severity and frequency of wildfire hazard. Areas of very low or low wildfire hazard could see an increase in hazard, as climate projections indicate an expansion of the wildfire hazard zone. Consider local studies on the impacts of climate change on wildfire trends, before deciding whether to design projects to withstand fire of greater intensity than those previously experienced in this region.

Recommendations

• REGULATIONS: Check with local authorities for any local regulations concerning wildfire hazard. Ensure that the project conforms to 1) any applicable wildfire land use planning regulations; 2) any applicable building regulations 3) any existing plans for warning and evacuation; and 4) any national laws, regulations and rules. More information
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  • Ensure that your project conforms with all local and national laws, regulations, rules and guidance for land-use planning and building design codes related to wildfire hazard.

  • Ensure that your project conforms with all local and national laws, regulations, rules and guidance for health and safety concerning wildfire hazard.

  Examples of wildfire planning and legislation (taken from the United States and Australia) include: http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/plan-and-prepare/building-in-a-bush-fire-area/planning-for-bush-fire-protection/planning-for-bush-fire-protection-2017-public-exhibition

  http://www.firewise.org/wildfire-preparedness/regulations-and-plans.aspx?sso=0 http://learnline.cdu.edu.au/units/env207/policy/legislation.html

  https://www.sa.gov.au/topics/planning-and-property/land-and-property-development/building-rules-regulations-and-information/building-or-developing-in-bushfire-prone-areas

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• LOCATION ASSESSMENT and PROFESSIONAL GUIDANCE: The high-level information available in this tool indicates the potential for weather that could support wildfire spread in your project area. Before committing significant resources to this project, a professional study of both the local fire weather potential, fire history and capacity of the surrounding landscape to support wildfire should be considered. More information
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  Consult your regional fire agency to determine whether there is sufficient reason to consider wildfire as a risk to your project.

  Local fire weather potential is determined by a combination of wind, temperature, humidity and recent rainfall history. These weather parameters are combined into a fire weather index such as http://www.fire.uni-freiburg.de/gwfews/ to provide daily forecasting for fire weather severity typically categorized into fire severity levels such as high, medium, low etc. These levels mean different things in different locations and vegetation types. Seek local advice from your regional firefighting agency as to how these fire weather severity levels relate to your local landscape.

  A higher fire weather index indicates: • dryer and more combustible fine grassy or woody fuels • stronger the wind will be to drive a wildfire through the landscape

  At a certain threshold of fire weather index, fires will be able to spread from an ignition source. Wildfires can spread through the landscape in a number of different ways: - It can spread through areas of grassy or woody fuels - It can produce firebrands which are carried by the wind with the potential to ignite a distant location.

  When grassy or woody surface fuels become difficult to see through or walk through they have already reached a level that could support an intense wildfire if the weather conditions are right. Your regional firefighting agency should be consulted for guidance on how to assess the fire potential of fuels local to and on your proposed project site.

  Your regional firefighting agency is likely to also be a useful resource for understanding the fire history of the region.

  At the scale of individual assets, a focus on building construction will also help in understanding failure thresholds including the potential for ignition by firebrands (embers). An appropriate location would ideally allow for sufficient clearance between infrastructure and fuel sources, particularly areas of unmanaged vegetation.

  Both ambient winds that drive a wildfire and additional wind effects cause by the wildfire itself can provide significant wind exposure. Consideration should be given building location (such as avoiding hilltops and ridgelines) and design with respect to wind damage and the potential for such damage that may open up the structure and allow firebrand entry.

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