Water scarcity Hazard level: Low ?

In the area you have selected (Vilnius) water scarcity is classified as low according to the information that is currently available to this tool. This means that there is a 1% chance drought will occur in the coming 10 years. Based on this information, the impact of drought should be considered in all phases of the project, in particular its effect on personnel and stakeholders, and during design of buildings and infrastructure. Project planning decisions, project design, and construction methods may take into account the level of drought hazard. Further detailed information should be obtained to adequately account for the level of hazard.

Climate change impact: Medium confidence in no major changes in dryness. The present hazard level may remain similar in the future due to the effects of climate change. However, this is uncertain and it may still be prudent to design projects in this area to be robust to increased drought hazard and water scarcity in the long-term. Change in water usage in this area may also affect water scarcity hazard, even with limited changes in climate conditions.

Recommendations

• SEEK INFORMATION: Conduct a risk assessment to further evaluate if your project is vulnerable to water scarcity/drought and whether a more detailed assessment and/or intervention should be considered. More information
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  Drought is a slowly evolving hazard leading to water scarcity that may impact large geographical areas and multiple sectors, ranging from crop failures and reductions in food production to reduced availability of electricity and fresh water.

  The water scarcity information provided by ThinkHazard! should be considered as a preliminary information in defining water scarcity in your project area. To further determine the potential risk, a detailed assessment should be undertaken to identify the vulnerability of your project or project area to water scarce conditions. For example, an assessment to determine the vulnerability of project beneficiaries to water scarcity and drought related problems such as food security and failing crops, or the potential disturbance of public services (transport, communication, sanitation fresh water, and electricity supply) and its impacts on your project.

  • Be aware that the hazard level provided by ThinkHazard! should be considered a first estimate of water scarcity. Further clarification of the local water scarcity may be required.
  • Evaluate the vulnerability of your project beneficiaries to water scarcity related problems such as food security and failing crops.
  • Evaluate the vulnerability of your project to the disturbance of public services, like transportation, communication, sanitation, fresh water supply, electricity supply etc
  • Identify if any local regulations exist concerning water scarcity & droughts. This may refer to limits on water use and electricity rationing when water is scarce.
  • If your project is interdependent with other projects, it is important to assess the vulnerability of all projects.

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• TECHNICAL EXPERTISE: Consultation with water scarcity and drought experts will provide a more detailed understanding of the risk posed to your project. The level of professional guidance required will depend upon the level of hazard present, the vulnerability of project assets, and any existing local legislation that might apply. More information
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  Professional guidance can take a number of forms, ranging from informal advice to a comprehensive site-specific water scarcity risk assessment. The required level of consultation will depend largely on the vulnerability of the project or development, the anticipated water scarcity level and the level of water scarcity risk assessment required (if any) by local legislation.

  Firstly, informal advice can represent a useful and effective means to gain a greater understanding of water scarcity. Professional forums and even professional social-media platforms can provide a means to access professionals with expertise in the field of water scarcity risk assessment. Academics, with expertise in your location of interest, may also prove a useful resource. They may have an intricate knowledge of water scarcity, as well as being able to identify key datasets and information that already exists in your project area.

  A more detailed understanding of water scarcity risk can be obtained via a water scarcity risk appraisal. A water scarcity risk appraisal will provide a more localised view of water scarcity risk (than provided by the ThinkHazard! tool), but still a broad view of water scarcity risk. These studies are typically desk studies that will attempt to provide a generic assessment of water scarcity risk by integrating available information, and perhaps undertaking some coarse scale modelling. A water scarcity risk appraisal will highlight key areas where a more detailed study may be required. Consultants who have demonstrated skills and experience in undertaking and delivering water scarcity risk assessments should be commissioned for this work. Ideally, the consultant should also have local experience in the project area, and consequently be familiar with available data and information as well as relevant local legislation and institutions.

  A site specific water scarcity risk assessment represents the most detailed appraisal of water scarcity risk at a given location. Water scarcity risk assessments can provide detailed information about water scarcity risk, and inform the design process as to the appropriate level of adaptation required. Water scarcity risk assessments can be resource intensive, and should be undertaken by consultants with demonstrated expertise in site-specific water scarcity risk assessments, including how water availability and demand may change with climate change. They will need to have appropriate skills in meteorology, hydrology, hydrogeology and computational water balance modelling. The consultant should also have extensive experience undertaking water scarcity risk assessments under the given climatology as well as being familiar with local legislation. If the project involves construction, there may be relevant building standards that apply to the project regarding water scarcity risk, e.g. rainwater storage, the installation of combined sewage systems for rainwater and sewage water, the application of temperature-regulation by the design of buildings or the installation of smart-temperature regulation systems (e.g. Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage for heating/cooling; green roofs), or the use of solar panels/small-scale wind turbines to ensure local electricity supply. Always ask for detailed examples of relevant experience from any consultant you wish to hire for these purposes.

  The level of professional guidance will depend largely on the vulnerability of the project and/or identified hazard level.

  • For high vulnerability assets, consider commissioning a water scarcity risk appraisal, with the aim being to provide a detailed understanding of local drought hazard and water scarcity risk.
  • For lower vulnerability assets, consider seeking informal guidance from professionals with expertise working in the area.

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• MONITORING AND FORECASTING: Identify any drought monitoring and forecasting systems that may exist in your project area. Be aware of how to receive messages what happens when they forecast a drought. These systems are designed to provide communities with information on evolving drought conditions using information on climate and water availability, and can be used to trigger drought management plans to mitigate the effects of a potential drought event. More information
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  Drought Monitoring and Forecasting Systems (DMFS) are key in reducing potential damages that results from a drought event. These systems are designed to provide communities with information on evolving drought conditions using information from (long-term seasonal) weather-forecasts, temperature records, measured rainfall and evapotranspiration, and data on the levels of rivers, lakes, reservoirs and groundwater. If sufficient warning can be given, then mitigation procedures can be implemented, which may include: the institution of drought management plans, the pre-stocking of fresh water and food, the increase of water storage volumes by increasing lake and reservoir storage levels, conjunctive use of groundwater and surface water, encouraging the local storage of fresh water (rainwater harvesting), encouraging local reductions in the use of fresh water and adaptation in the management of agricultural systems (eg. planting drought-prone crops, planting less crops, using extra/alternative agricultural management options (use of fertilizer, tillage, etc.)).

  DMFS may vary from local scale procedures that already exist for your location, through to large scale DMFS. Local DMFS are likely to be run by government agencies, emergency responders or even local communities. Large scale DMFS also exist, the global agricultural drought monitoring and forecasting system is an example of such a system that can provide a provisional DMFS.

  • If your project provides a critical service, consider implementing basic measures to ensure the project can continue to function in case of water scarcity such as having an alternative energy supply system (wind/solar/batteries).

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• EXISTING INFORMATION: Obtain pre-existing drought and water scarcity information. ThinkHazard! predominantly uses global datasets, therefore you should determine the availability of pre-existing local information to check whether your project is indeed located in a region prone to water scarcity / drought. More information
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  Acquisition of the available local water scarcity/drought hazard data should be undertaken for all sites and all hazard levels. Information about water scarcity/drought hazard can take multiple forms; this includes spatial maps of water scarcity/drought hazard, local reporting of previous drought events, and local official and/or indigenous knowledge.

  Observations of previous water scarcity/drought events can also be used to define water scarcity/drought hazard. The identification of previous events occurring at a given location will clearly indicate the presence of a significant hazard. This can be used to refine the hazard levels provided by the ‘Think Hazard!’ tool. However, the non-existence of an event in these archives should not be used to infer the non-existence of a hazard. It simply means that an event has not yet been recorded officially.

  Documentation of previous events, through local news reports, can also provide a useful insight into previous events, and help to define to risk of water scarce conditions at a more local scale. Organisations such as Reliefweb (reliefweb.int) also represent a useful resource, providing information about previous events and their consequences.

  In addition to water scarcity/drought hazard modelling, mapping and documentation, local knowledge can provide a useful source of additional information that can be used to identify water scarcity/drought hazard. Local government officials may provide written records, observations or insight into previous water scarcity/drought events that have occurred. Likewise, local residents may have a good understanding of the local behaviour of the hydro-economic system, particularly if they have resided within the project region over a significant period of time. These sources of local knowledge should be used to further inform the likely water scarcity/drought hazard level at a given location.

  • Consult local open access water scarcity/drought hazard maps (if readily available).
  • Obtain local ‘soft’ knowledge (interview council, local residents, etc.).
  • Obtain evidence of previous events, if available.
  • Obtain detailed water scarcity/drought hazard maps for your project from government agency, or local/international consultancy (if available).

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• WATER MANAGEMENT: Your project should consider water scarcity/drought management measures to alleviate risk, including water storage, alternative sources, and reduced use of resources. More information
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  Water scarcity/drought management includes all measures that may alleviate water scarcity/drought risk. This can range from pre-stocking of food and fresh water resources, to storing rainwater, providing in alternative energy sources (wind/solar), to minimizing the overuse of fresh water resources, and planting more drought resistant crops.

  The water scarcity/drought management options available will depend upon the type of the water scarcity/drought event, the size of the project, the resources available, and the willingness/ability of other stakeholders in the region to participate. In the case of large projects, a number of water scarcity/drought management procedures will be available, including taking measures to store fresh water, setting up an alternative energy supply system based on solar or wind power, steps to minimize the overuse of water, and planting of alternative crops (adapt via agricultural management). Regardless of the measures implemented, it is important to note that scarcity/drought management measures should not be treated in isolation, as their impact on other areas may be significant.

  • Identify whether water scarcity/drought management plans or procedures are in place in the local region, and how your project will integrate within the existing water scarcity/drought management framework.
  • Consider developing and implementing an Integrated Water scarcity/Drought Management plan (if one does not exist).
  • For large projects, consider water scarcity/drought adaptation measures, such as the storage of (fresh) water, the development of an alternative energy supply scheme via solar or wind power, providing in adaptation through agricultural management applications (crop type, land management).
  • If your project provides a critical service, consider implementing basic measures to ensure the project can continue to function in case of a water scarcity/drought event such as providing alternative energy sources (solar/wind/batteries) for critical electronic equipment
  • If you have an agricultural project, consider the negative impacts of water shortages and crop failures on the overall project success. Consider if measures need to be taken to mitigate risks, such as planting more drought resilient crops, or considering agricultural insurance. Set aside finances to cover both foreseen and unforeseen drought-related costs by including them in the project budget during project design.

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